tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72369488330545193212024-02-20T04:23:52.019-08:00The Dusty ShoeA Real Estate Blog by Jeff GershAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-21920517230504323042016-09-15T19:02:00.000-07:002016-09-15T19:02:23.205-07:00The Day Solar Energy Died in Florida<div class="MsoNormal">
The Day Solar Energy Died in Florida<o:p></o:p></div>
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Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages,
step right up and be amazed at the sleight of hand being perpetrated by the
State of Florida public utility companies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Stare in awed wonder at Amendment 1 and the statements of how the
utility companies have the public interest at heart.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shame on you Consumers for Smart Solar for
misleading the public into thinking that Amendment 1 will provide additional
protections and opportunities for individual solar generation.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Let’s get something straight.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In its most basic form, Amendment 1 performs
one very important, crucial function for the electric companies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Amendment 1 does away with net metering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What does this mean?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Currently, if you have a solar panel system,
you generate electrical energy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
energy does not go directly to your home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It goes to the electric companies who provide you back a credit against
the electricity that they provide to you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Hence, you get a “net” benefit for what you provide against what you
use.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By removing net metering, Amendment
1 will allow the utility companies to effectively charge you fees for providing
them electricity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their argument is that
since you are providing them energy along their lines, you are therefore using
their services and should be responsible for paying for this right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this way, they claim to protect all the
other people that don’t have solar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
is both ridiculous and sad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
ridiculous to assume that providing electricity back to the grid is creating a
burden on all electricity users.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
sad because it is being couched in terms that make it seem like it is making
solar more accessible to the general population.<o:p></o:p></div>
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There is no easier way to pierce this veil than to see who
is behind the support for this amendment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The Consumers for Smart Solar PAC has raised over $16,000,000 to promote
this amendment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The top contributors are
FP&L - $4,145,000, Duke Energy - $3,987,000, TECO - $2,352,675 and Gulf
Power - $1,659,450.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Amendment 1 is very different from Amendment 4, which was
approved this past August.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Amendment 4
removed certain state taxes from solar systems, making solar installation more
affordable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where a yes vote for
Amendment 4 helped reduce the cost of obtaining solar, a yes vote for Amendment
1 will allow the utility companies to impose substantial fees for the use of
solar.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The sad thing is that the language for the Amendment is very
confusing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is couched in such a way
as to appear appealing to the general public who desire a solar alternative, when
in fact, it is anything but beneficial to the general public and solar users.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, who is not in favor of solar energy,
right?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately, as their
contributions indicate, the only groups that will truly benefit will be the
utility companies as they will be able to charge people more for their right to
generate solar electricity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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In an age of global warming and increased environmental
enlightenment, the utility companies and proponents of this amendment should be
ashamed of themselves.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Please do not be fooled.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Please share this blog with as many voting Floridians as you can.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Amendment 1 is not a push for solar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a push to increase profits for the
utility companies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vote a resounding NO
to Amendment 1 in November.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Until
next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Keep
kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Jeff
Gersh is President of Gersh Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm,
headquartered in Orlando, FL. He may be reached at <a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></a> or 407-468-9328</span></i><span style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-70475416955048359472015-09-01T06:32:00.002-07:002015-09-01T06:32:42.250-07:00Own vs. Rent - Why is it a financial decision?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b>Own vs. Rent – Why is it a financial decision?</b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
As the real estate markets continue to recover, I read with
fascination those reports touting that renting may be a better financial
decision than buying, or vice versa, based on the dynamics of various MSAs and
sub-markets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The entire focus is on the
cost effectiveness side of the equation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
This type of cold-blooded financial analysis saddens me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have often considered buying a house as a
process similar to buying art.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Buy it
because you like it, because it makes you feel good, because it is a
representation of who you are.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That does
not mean that economics have no place at the decision table.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, to boil down the process to a pure
dollars and sense analysis misses the true point of buying a house.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the end of the day, you should buy or rent
based on the dynamics of where you want to live.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is it close to schools and shopping?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are you comfortable with your commute?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do you like the neighborhood?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
While these choices are the same regardless of buying or
renting, there is one other factor that is not the same.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How long do you plan on living there?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Renting is a more transient form of accommodation
that owning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You are usually not putting
down permanent roots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even if an
upwardly mobile family will only stay in the same home for 5 – 7 years, you
usually do not find renters staying in the same apartment for such a long
length of time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Whether people will admit it or not, everyone has a
social impact to the community in which they live.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you rent, you are more likely to have a
short term perspective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As such, you may
not care to contribute as much of your time or resources to the growth and
vitality of your community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, at the
end of the day, isn’t that the real reason why we choose where to live?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When you ask someone where they live, how
often do they identify themselves with their dwelling versus their
neighborhood?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
If you feel a sense of permanence in your residence, you
are more apt to take a larger interest in the growth of your community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By extrapolation, if you find that you are
invested in your community, won’t that, in turn, strengthen the neighborhood
values, resulting in capital appreciation to your home?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I know I am turning my argument into a
financial case, but if analysts are going to truly compare the rent versus buy
decision, shouldn’t this factor into the equation?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
We always have financial choices in everything we
do.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, as a home is usually the
largest purchase a family will ever make, costs play a huge role in the
decision process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, let’s
recognize that the buy versus rent decision is so much more than just a pure
financial choice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a life
statement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In an apartment, you keep the
boxes for the next move.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a home, you
leave them at the curb for recycling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What
is your choice?</div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Until next time…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Keep kicking the dirt!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span></i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-39099073308216843462015-03-18T06:01:00.000-07:002015-03-18T06:01:08.028-07:00No Guts No Glory<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
No Guts No Glory</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I would like to ask a question of the homebuilding community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We often say we are interested in innovative
product, plans, cutting edge technology and new design.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, how many of you are willing to go
that extra mile to deviate from the norm, to take a chance that may put your pricing
above the market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will the market accept
it, promote it and embrace it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More
importantly, will the market be willing to pay for it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the $64,000 question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
When a gamble works, you are considered a trailblazer,
someone with vision who was willing to stick to your convictions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You are recognized as an individual who not
only has their finger on the pulse of the market, but has the uncanny ability
to know what consumers want before they know they want it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like Steve Jobs if he had built homes instead
of computers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, if you miss, you
are considered a poor risk taker, someone who missed the market and did not
recognize that you cannot sell what is not asked for.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like what almost happened to Apple when Steve
Jobs first left the company.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is a fine line, and one which has no definitive
answer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I toured a top selling community
the other week that has multiple builders and is located in a price sensitive
sub-market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most product tends to follow
tried and true layouts, and pricing per foot is fairly standard across the
product segments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then one of the
builders tried something different with a new product line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While I would not call the changes radical,
they are of a nature to be significant enough to be very noticeable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like test driving a BMW after looking at
Fords and Chevys (sorry Ford and Chevy drivers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>No harm intended.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It obviously
carries with it an increased base price relative to competitive product, but
you definitely get a home that feels more valuable than the other options
available.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am not talking upgrades
here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is all about design,
utilization of space and incorporation of light.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I don’t know if it will succeed or fail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I sincerely hope it succeeds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I want to believe that homeowners will
recognize value when they see it and will be willing to stretch a little
further to invest in something that raises the bar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am not implying that all good ideas can sell
at a premium.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, it is refreshing
to see an entrepreneurial spirit shine through now and again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Regardless of what market research and
consumer focus groups tell us, you never really know what will work until you
can dedicate yourself to an ideal and have the courage to implement it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is good that Steve Jobs came back to Apple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is also good to see builders taking
calculated risks with product and design.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But it is a gamble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You may not
be the next Steve Jobs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But do you have
the conviction to try?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Until next time…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Keep kicking the dirt!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh Consulting
Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando, FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span></i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-67848447710661093982015-03-13T12:58:00.000-07:002015-03-13T13:12:47.270-07:00A Contrarian Perspective<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
A Contrarian Perspective</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The real estate business is very much an emotional
business.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You can see it, feel it and
touch it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It tends to be an extension of
an individual or corporation and is out there for all the world to see.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
a tangible investment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether a
commercial property, vacant land or other form of real estate, it is something
that has visual substance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And no one
like to make a mistake on something that everyone can see.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Back in the late 80s and early 90s, no one would touch
office or hotel properties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were
overbuilt, vacancies were high and no one knew where the bottom was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It drove return hurdles to ridiculous levels
and drove prices down to bargain valuations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
During the most recent real estate bust, the same was true
of residential real estate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Land could
be had for pennies on the dollar and the markets were littered with destroyed
companies and little liquidity.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In both cases, people were afraid to make purchases and
investments as no one knew where the bottom was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Opportunistic investors swooped in and made
fortunes with contrarian investment strategies, not worrying whether their purchase
was at the true bottom, but feeling comfortable that it was at least low enough
to guarantee a substantial return whenever the markets would improve.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A similar phenomenon is occurring in current homebuilding lending
practices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As many smaller builders went
out of business in the last downturn, institutional investment dollars have now
flocked to the more established large builders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They are perceived as more stable with a lower risk of project
failure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This has resulted in the reduction
of an important source of capital for new start-ups to take shape.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without so-called country club money, new
builders have limited access to capital.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
From a contrarian perspective, this creates a huge
opportunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider the
following.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a project performs poorly,
who is more likely to pull out, a new or established builder?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If a deal is unconventional, who is more
likely to figure out how to make it work, a new or established builder?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When trying to latch on to new trends and
innovations, who is more likely to react quicker, a new or established builder?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In all three circumstances, I would argue on
behalf of the new builder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They cannot
afford for any deal to fail, they are more likely to think out of the box for
non-standard opportunities and they have less red tape to jump through to
adjust for innovation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In an improving
real estate market, these seem to be compelling, but overlooked
opportunities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Additionally, everyone loves
a fresh face.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I understand that there is fear that the real estate markets
can falter again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, it is an
investment and investments move both up and down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We tend to get scarred easily and those
wounds take time to heal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Except for
those contrarians who recognize opportunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In an improving homebuilding market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For new homebuilders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Until next time…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Keep kicking the dirt!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span></i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328</span></i></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-81982298423339894852015-01-20T11:52:00.004-08:002015-01-20T11:52:46.098-08:00Good to the last drop<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Good to the last drop<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
I admit that I am no stock market expert. So, I am puzzled when I hear that falling oil
prices can have a negative effect on the economy. I understand that a lower cost of oil
detracts from fossil fuel exploration, that it negatively impacts the value of
big energy conglomerates and that there is economic fallout to energy dependent
countries like Russia and Venezuela, as well as energy based cities like
Houston. However, last time I checked,
the remainder of the world uses oil. Falling
oil prices can only help the rest of us.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
From a home building construction perspective, this
benefit helps in two ways. First, it
reduces the cost to manufacture building materials. A large number of construction materials are oil
based products. Second, there are large fuel
savings for transportation of both labor and material deliveries. While I do not see these savings necessarily
being fully passed along to the actual home builders in an improving housing
market, I do see these savings increasing the bottom lines of the construction
trades.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Lower oil prices should, though, benefit home builders
from a consumer purchasing perspective.
First, lower oil prices means lower gas prices which increases disposable
income, allowing for a more expensive home purchase decision. Additionally, lower gas prices increases the universe
of community options for buyers, as distance becomes less of an issue with
reduced travel expenses. Both of these
circumstances will lead to increased demand, resulting in higher home
prices. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Finally, we all know the trickle-down effect to the
economy of home building. As it touches
so many industries, what is good for home building is good for the overall economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Now, I understand the concept that what is good for oil
users is bad for oil producers, and that reduced oil pricing is bad for those
economies dependent on fossil fuel energy production. However, most people and industries are
energy users, not energy generators. I
have to believe that both the short and long term benefit of reduced energy
costs can only be good for the continued growth of both the housing industry as
well as the overall economy. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Remember, as housing goes, so goes the economy. If we need less expensive oil to grease those
wheels, how can that ever be a bad thing?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Until next time…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL. He may be reached at </i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></i></a><i>
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-15230706837634849592015-01-12T06:24:00.005-08:002015-01-12T06:24:57.480-08:00The Chicken or the Egg<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
The Chicken or the Egg<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
What came first, increased land prices, or builders
securing land positions for future growth?
It is an interesting question.
Common sense dictates that you should buy low and sell high. Land should be purchased in a down market and
held for market improvement. However, no
one likes to catch falling knives and few builders tend to buy sufficiently long
term land positions as a core objective.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
So, how do we then account for the current land purchase
frenzy in an improving market? It is actually
a simple matter of limited supply and short term planning. Each year, builders set projections for the
next few years, constantly modifying projections on a quarterly (if not monthly)
basis. Now, the builder who has a
crystal ball has yet to be born, which tends to result in planning decisions
based on current conditions, not future conditions. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
As markets improve, builders are forced to increase
staffing to support sales and construction growth. In turn, they push forward increased
projections to align with this heightened staffing and anticipated continued market
strength. Now, knowing that you require
at least a 6-12 month lead time in land position to accommodate future needs,
everyone starts rolling the same dice at the same time to increase land holdings
to both satisfy future projections as well as to justify larger staffing
levels, causing land prices to rise.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Then, to support these higher land values, builders start
increasing home prices under the premise that markets are heating up so that
home buyers are willing to pay more for a home.
Never mind the fact that inflation is flat and salaries may not be
increasing. This often has the
unintended consequence of slowing down the sales market as pricing accelerates
past the point of current affordability, resulting in short term dips in the
heated land values that helped raise home prices to begin with.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
This somewhat artificial growth in land values will tend
to continue until the next true down cycle occurs, at which point builders
start reducing their land positions so they do not get caught over-leveraged on
land, causing land prices to either flatten out or decline. The disappointing fact here is that this is
exactly the point that builders should be loading up on land and preparing for
the next upturn in the market.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
Unfortunately, it seems that those that do not learn from
history are doomed to repeat it. With
investment horizons for builders, lenders and non-opportunistic equity
investors typically hovering in the three to four year time horizon, I see no
end to this strategy of buying high and hoping for higher. Chicken or egg? It seems we have a history of continually
eating the chickens and then wondering where the eggs have gone.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Until next time…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL. He may be reached at </i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></i></a><i>
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-47008893397251841272015-01-02T11:48:00.002-08:002015-01-02T11:48:24.795-08:00Homes and Health Care<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Homes and Health Care<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I do not consider myself a Democrat or a Republican. I believe in social services as well as
reduced taxes. I guess that means I care
for the common man so long as the common man does not negatively impact me
financially. With that understood, I am
perplexed by the current health care plan.
(How does this tie to real estate? – Bear with me. I will get there!). I was an original believer that a health care
program for all was a good idea. It just
makes sense. However, as rates re-set
this year, I found an overwhelming need to cry foul. A long, hard, loud from the rooftops
foul. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">(This is where I tie in to real estate!) If a developer sets up a HOA, they need to do
their best to approximate yearly expenses before they can sell a single piece
of real estate. In fact, a sales
contract is not valid without providing HOA docs and a disclosure statement
noting yearly HOA fees. On top of that,
at least in the great State of Florida, a developer is limited to a yearly cap
on how much those fees can be increased.
Additionally, if utilities or insurance companies try to increase their
rates, they need to go through a regulatory review by the state which is
usually accompanied by much kicking, screaming and back-room negotiations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">These caps and oversight are all done with an eye towards
the protection of the consumer. It does
no good for someone to own a home if they suddenly cannot afford the ownership
expenses due to yearly increases. This
makes sense. Obviously, this concept did
not make it to Washington, where health care insurance costs have just gone up
somewhere between 20% - 30% with no oversight.
It appears that the same powers that care whether you can afford to stay
in your home, do not seem to care whether you can still afford to live there if
you get sick.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">They will tell you that, even though rates have increased,
there are still plenty of affordable plans to choose from. What they fail to explain is that those lower
cost plans have much higher deductibles.
Therefore, if you have to change plans due to cost, and then get sick,
you will find yourself with an out of pocket deductible that more than
obliterates whatever savings you just achieved by reducing your benefits to a
more affordable plan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">I have never been a fan of real estate regulatory
oversight. I feel that the actions of the
few have caused unnecessary control over the actions of the many that do it the
right way. However, what is good for the
goose is good for the gander, so they say.
The same controls put in place with an eye towards homeowner protection
should apply to the health care industry as well. It is a simple concept. It should have been simple in its
implementation. Otherwise, it is buyer
beware to those who get sick. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL. He may be reached at </i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></i></a><i>
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-82679026432552097862014-11-20T14:34:00.000-08:002014-11-20T14:34:39.794-08:00Let's just stay in and talk to the house
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Let’s just stay in and talk to the house</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As the holidays are just around the corner, every new
gadget imaginable (and some not imaginable) are being advertised as the next “can’t
live without it item”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether it be a
bigger iPhone, a smaller iPad or a watch which is really a phone/computer, it
gets very confusing after a while.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>OK.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So you are wondering what
does this have to do with real estate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Actually, everything.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all,
what is a home if not your refuge from the outside world, where you can allow
your stress to fade away and you can enjoy all the modern conveniences of today’s
world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">With that in mind, let’s look back at some of what the
last 100 years have given us.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The car, which led to the detached garage, which also
served as a workshop, which led to the attached garage, which led to the
convenience of garage door openers since no one wants to actually get out of
the car, eventually leading to third car garages because life is not the same
unless everyone and the dog has a car, which inevitably led to the bonus room
since there was no longer any workshop space in the garage with all these cars.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Electricity, (I know, it was in use over 100 years ago,
but humor me here), which led to the light bulb to CFL bulbs to LED
bulbs. And then to appliances, from iceboxes to microwaves to convection ovens. Let's also not forget about air conditioning (God bless air conditioning – nuff said). And who can forget furniture size
radios, leading to black and white televisions to color televisions to flat screens to Playstation
and Xbox, to 3D to Netflix on curved screen ultra HD televisions. And, now, back
again to cars (see Tesla).</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Plumbing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No going
outside for water anymore.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No going
outside, either.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The point is, we live in a world of exceptional change,
but we are relatively immune to all The home modifications that have been occurring around us throughout
our lifetimes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We take for granted all
the differences from the housing our grandparents grew up with.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was no cable, nor clickers for the
television.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Heck, now you can even just waive
your hand to change channels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Meals were
family events, partially because you had no microwave to quickly heat up and
prepare food.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Heat was sometimes
provided by coals under the beds (okay, I may be going back another generation
or two here – but I remember seeing them.)</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Looking back to all these changes, I am sure that the
housing of our children’s children will be vastly different than what we live
in today.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Anyway, these are just my observations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t take my word for it. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Give your grandparents a call on their house
phone. Then again, they may no longer have one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You will have to settle for Skyping instead.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span></span></i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328</span></span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-70094679188455555402014-02-24T06:22:00.000-08:002014-02-24T06:22:40.083-08:00Real Estate Physics
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Real Estate Physics<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">There are certain principles that we hold to be unalienable
truths.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A unit of mass at rest will stay
at rest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A unit of mass in motion will
stay in motion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These are basic rules of
physics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If A happens, we know B to be
true.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately, the laws of physics
will never apply to real estate transactions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">When buying a home, an individual will feel it is their
obligation to negotiate the price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Regardless of whether it is a buyer’s or seller’s market, a buyer will
always search to see what room there is for negotiation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Other than automotive sales, it is the only industry where it is an accepted norm to haggle on the price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The funny part, though, is this same logic does not apply
when they turn around years later and try to sell.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The same person that felt the home they were
buying was overpriced at purchase will then try to top the
market for the highest possible value when they try to sell it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Additionally, they will often get indignant
when someone new attempts to haggle and
offer a lower price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Why does this happen?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Why does the mass at rest not stay at rest?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why must we feel the boulder should roll
uphill when we find ourselves as the ones now forced to push it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I find the answer to be as simple as personal
attachment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As opposed to other retail
purchases such as televisions and appliances, we find ourselves exceptionally
attached to our homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is like a
pet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a reflection of
ourselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have poured our souls into
them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many celebrated life events
occur there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our kids are
born and raised there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We improve our
homes to reflect our changing personal circumstances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Get a raise, redo the kitchen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Your child graduates high school or college,
throw a party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You become empty nesters
and have the home alone for just you and your spouse?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, that’s a story for a different web
site.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anyway, people tend to treat their
homes as if it is a business for sale instead of an asset for sale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They feel there is a degree of personal
goodwill that has value above and beyond the sticks and bricks that should be
readily apparent to every buyer that comes through the door.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Unfortunately for the seller, there is no extraneous
goodwill in the sale of real estate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> George Washington did not sleep in your home. Neither did Bill Clinton. </span>In
fact, the day someone decides to sell their home, they need to realize that it
stops being their home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether they
like it or not, they need to look at their residence through a very
dispassionate lens.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They need to stage
the house to make it acceptable and attractive to the greatest number of
buyers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Paint the exterior a more
neutral color.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Get rid of the kids’
height markings on the laundry room door.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Clean out the garage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Personal
memories need to be boxed up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one is
buying someone else’s nostalgia.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This, though, is easier said than done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The emotional detachment you displayed for
your purchase is difficult to accept on your sale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Human nature does not have the same
principles as physics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If it did,
though, we may all find it easier to buy and sell homes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-14947657399402610762014-02-17T06:17:00.005-08:002014-02-17T06:17:45.694-08:00Mother Nature Big
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Mother Nature Big<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">OK Florida developers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This blog is for you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now is the
time to reap what you sow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You have
never had a better opportunity to blow away your sales targets with out of town
buyers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Savvy developers know how to
follow up on a major advertising campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Offer incentives, giveaways, throw a party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The point is to get customers through the door
while your product is fresh on their minds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So, what are you all waiting for?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Mother Nature just put your marketing campaigns in bright lights,
brought you mainstream to the entire country.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>She gave you a first class, “A” rated advertisement for the sunnier
climes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And she did not just advertise
up north where it is historically cold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>She even gave you a front page spread in the mid-south and all points in
between, like the Carolinas and Georgia, where snow is as common as sundresses
in January.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And what are you doing about
it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>NOTHING.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure, you may be giving lip service about how
the bad weather will cause people to move.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You may even take out a regional newspaper ad or put something on the
radio or TV.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>Big deal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Think bigger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Think Mother Nature Big.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You need
to not only roll out the red carpet, you need to paint the major highways
red.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Physically red, using big cans of
paint, directing them where to go.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Show them
the path the whole way down south.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Free
meals at every Denny’s and Cracker Barrel along the way if you buy a home right
now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Send a plane.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, send a fleet of planes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let people know their flights are waiting on
the tarmac.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First come, first
served.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Free flights.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hand out floral shirts and plaid shorts and
tell them they look good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Black socks, sunglasses
and big hats too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let them know that
never ending sunshine awaits.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pay no
attention to those who say they are afraid of hurricanes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Really?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It seems like their recent winters of discontent have been on par with
our stormy summers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The last time I
checked, the hurricanes played no favorites along the east coast, either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just ask those from New Jersey who are still
feeling the effects from Hurricane Sandy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Send buses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reroute trains.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It can be the mother of all parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pour lots of fruity drinks with little
umbrellas in them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Put orange slices on the highballs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let them know they can grow those
same oranges in their backyards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Have a
bonfire party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let them bring all their
winter coats to throw on the fire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
can be the world’s largest weenie roast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Tell them to forget the Yankees and the Cubs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Tampa Rays have been better anyway.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They don’t have to worry about how bad their
hometown football teams are, either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We
have three mediocre pro football teams right here that they can lament
over.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You want winning football?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Follow the state’s college programs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We even have two pro hockey teams.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Give them nice warm sweaters to wear to the
games to ward off the chill from the ice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Whatever it takes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is your
chance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Think big.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mother Nature Big.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span></span></i><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-5232429813228784822014-02-12T16:21:00.001-08:002014-02-12T16:21:21.784-08:00A not so perfect world
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">A not so perfect world<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In a perfect world, a home will always be built on time and
to a 100% quality standard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Unfortunately, we do not live in a perfect world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Forced to sometimes choose between a stated
delivery schedule and meeting a defined quality standard, what would you do?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">You may have a contract that states an anticipated delivery
date.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the date is written as a
soft timeframe with more disclaimers than you care to remember, a buyer will
look at that date as cast in stone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
date, while still qualified, is then most likely reinforced by the builder
during his conversations with the buyer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Additionally, the buyer will probably be making arrangements based on
that closing date, scheduling moving trucks, furniture delivery and family
gatherings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On a positive note, you can
probably get away with changing the delivery date up to 30 - 45 days prior to
the estimated closing without causing too much heartache.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After that, you may have a real problem on
your hands and you may have to consider eating the cost of accommodations and
storage expenses to reduce the inconvenience to your buyer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">On the quality side, you may find yourself in a bind if the
home will be completed on time, but it does not meet the fit and finish
standards that your buyer is expecting at the delivery of their home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A buyer should always expect the same level
of quality in their own home that they see in the model homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You also want to minimize quality issues to
reduce the level of warranty work that needs to be done to a home right after
closing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No one wants to have to perform
quality repairs after delivery with residents living in the home.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The question, though, was what will you do if you are forced
to choose?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My choice would be to
maintain quality over delivery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You may
be able to make up for the inconvenience of a delayed close by taking a
monetary hit to resolve the timing inconvenience.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, you can rarely, if ever, recover
from a lapse in quality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First, if there
are issues at closing, I guarantee you that the buyer will subsequently find a
dozen more perceived deficiencies with the home whether they truly exist or
not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You have already planted the seed
for poor quality in their heads and they will be looking for reasons to
reinforce their negative perceptions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Second, they will absolutely tell all their friends about how
disappointed they are in the quality of their home and how they have lost faith
in you as a builder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you are late in
delivery, you can go over the top to work to make it up to them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the quality is poor, they will always feel
like they are living in a substandard home.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Neither option is good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Life, though, is not always fair and there will be times when you have
to make difficult decisions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My decision
is to always err on the side of quality.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-26486747180470203612014-02-03T03:51:00.003-08:002014-02-03T03:51:45.194-08:00An elephant never forgets
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">An elephant never forgets<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">With the real estate industry seeming to be on a bumpy road
to recovery, I would like to focus some attention on the trades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You know, those individuals that make
everyone else look good by being the groups that are truly responsible for the
quality and increasingly energy efficient housing that is rising like a phoenix
from the ashes of the housing crash.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The problem is, there are fewer sub-contractors out there
that are able to take credit for this work than had been present five or ten
years ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It seems that when housing
starts decreased, so did the trade base.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, unlike the housing rebound, the trades have been slow to ramp
up and join the party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether that is
because they are waiting to see if this rebound is sustainable, or whether
individuals have chosen to pursue other career paths does not really
matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fact is that there are
presently more seats at the homebuilding party than there are participants
ready to sit at the table.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Obviously, this has resulted in a bargaining position shift
between the builders and the trades.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Where trades had previously needed to sharpen their pencils to the
breaking point just to stay in business, they now have the ability to not only
raise prices, but to also pick and choose those builders that they want to do
business with.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, make no mistake
about it, the trades have long memories about who treated them right and with
respect when times were tough and who did not.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So, what does this mean?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As with any economic imbalance, there is a window of opportunity at
present where the trades have the ability to raise prices and demand more
favorable payment terms.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This will, in
turn, trickle down to higher home prices, and, possibly, a bit of a slowdown in
the short term housing recovery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, it will also result in growth among the sub-contractors as existing
businesses grow and new business pop up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The lure of expansion and rising profits will bring costs down and
create a more stable trade base equilibrium over time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The main question is how long will this take and what will
be the fall out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is possible that
homebuilders that had squeezed their trades in the past will find their expansion
objectives derailed by lack of a currently consistent trade base.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Conversely, those builders that have had, and
presently show, a willingness to work more favorably with the trades, may find
themselves better positioned to garner the attention and services of a presently
limited base of sub-contractors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">They say that times of growth are times of opportunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I say that those that recognize growth to be
a team effort will be the ones that reap the true rewards of a recovery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In truth, the homebuilders that are the
quickest to recognize and react to those who hold the leverage during this time
of sub-contractor imbalance will most likely be the ones that best position
themselves for a steady rebound.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-87293264282994303832014-01-27T05:47:00.000-08:002014-01-27T05:47:45.035-08:00Stay cold and stay wet
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Stay cold and stay wet<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">From here in the south<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I follow the charts<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Not stocks or investments<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But weather in parts<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I chuckle with glee <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">At the ice and the snow<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As the people will think <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">They have nowhere to go<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But they do, they have choices<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The options are clear<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Come down where it’s warm<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Most times of the year.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But wait they will say<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The timing has past<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The prices are rising<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The bargains won’t last<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So they wait and they shovel<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As the snow piles high<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So close it near touches<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The gray clouds in the sky<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The excuses then mount<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Little land left to build<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The traffic is terrible<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And the food is no good.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The same excuses were used<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In recessions of past<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The condo crash in the 70s<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Overbuilt housing this last<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But they miss one small point<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Some things never change<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Southern migration did slow<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But will rebound just the same<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As Florida is poised<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">To become the third state most populous<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It replaces New York<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">That old staid metropolis<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Where housing is expensive<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And taxes are high<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">They will soon come to realize<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As their days pass them by<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">That the bargains remain<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">You get more for your money<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">When you trade in up north<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">For the lands warm and sunny<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And soon all will forget<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The sales bust and the scare<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As they swap out their rain boots<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">For shorts and swim wear<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The masses will follow<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As they read tweets from their friends<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I haven’t shoveled snow in a year<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I don’t even pretend<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sales and prices will rise<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But no one will care<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The market will dictate<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">What is just and is fair<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So stay cold and stay wet<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Watch the snow in the light<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The next boom is coming<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Soon all will be right.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-2210627732236179482014-01-20T05:00:00.001-08:002014-01-20T05:00:52.037-08:00Looking good from here
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Looking good from here<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I have been reading how, over the past few months, new home
sales have been having 20+% increases since last year and how the pace of new single
family home sales is now at an annualized rate of about 464,000 yearly sales.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Woo hoo, great news!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, I wanted to evaluate this current
increase and sales pace historically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Coupled with my favorite web browser, I was able to visit the census.gov/construction
website and review new home sales over the last 50 years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Interesting data on this chart.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all know that new home sales peaked in
2005 when people had nothing better to do with their money than to bid up the
prices and sales pace of new homes to the tune of 1.283 million single family homes
that year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Almost three times the pace
of 2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We also know that the years
2000 – 2002 reflected a more stabilized price and sales pace for new home
sales.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During that three year period,
new home sales increased from 877,000 to 908,000 to 973,000 single family homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Looking at the current 2013 yearly increase
with this historical lens, it is somewhat refreshing to know that we still have
about 100% to go just to get back to the last normal pace of new home
sales.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">To put an even greater perspective on the current sales
pace, before the recent downturn, you have to go back to 1981 and 1982 to see
absorption levels below 500,000, when they were at 436,000 and 412,000 new home
sales, respectively.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Before that, you
have to look to the years 1966 – 1970 when sales hovered between 450,000 and
480,000 homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I guess the free love
period did not translate to buying a new home to find your own room.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even going all the way back to 1963, there
were 560,000 new single family homes being sold.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Let’s look at the current sales pace another way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Assume no homes are sold in the 10 least
populated states and that all 464,000 new home sales are just spread among the
remaining 40 states (Sorry Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, the Dakotas et al. I need
to make a point).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That means each of
these 40 states only averaged 11,600 new home sales per year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or 967 homes per month, or 32 homes per day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Florida, the Villages alone, the top
selling community in the US, sold over 3,400 homes this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Obviously, there is room here for national
growth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The point is, as the housing recovery continues, do not get
caught up in talk that the new home sales pace will slow as interest rates and
home prices continue to rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Barring a
new unforeseen economic meltdown, this puppy is just starting to rev back up
again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am not saying we are going to
get back to 1.283 million new home sales again anytime soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, there is a long way to go before we
even begin to reach what should be a return to normal levels of stabilization.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-35822237646409022442014-01-13T06:07:00.000-08:002014-01-13T06:07:03.240-08:00Breaking up is hard to do
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Breaking up is hard to do<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Do you live on a golf course?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Would you like to?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Staring over manicured green fairways as your
property abuts up to the course.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or does
it?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Let’s take a step back and review the development process of
a golf course that meanders through a residential neighborhood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During the planning process, you not only
have single family lots and golf course acreage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You also have HOA property that often acts as
a buffer between the golf course and residential lots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Typically, this little love triangle is not
problematic when the original developer owns the lots, the golf course and
controls the HOA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem, though,
comes into play when the developer chooses to sell the golf course.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">You see, a funny thing happens when the golf course is
sold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The buyer wants to actually know exactly
what they are purchasing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is where
the problems can occur.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unless the lots
clearly abut the out of bounds areas of the course, it can get confusing as to
who owns what.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are certain areas clearly
marked as HOA lands?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If so, can they be
easily accessed after the course is sold?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Are the plats clear as to ownership?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Has the survey been done correctly?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It sounds like a simple process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, I can tell you that it is one of those things that tend to slip
through the cracks until various ownership groups come into play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Are there any irrigation separation
issues?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Have the golf course and HOA
budgets clearly accounted for maintenance expense of the potentially disputed
areas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The list goes on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In the end, the issue is typically resolved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, as with any dispute, there is
usually some blood that is spilled on all sides.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As easy as it is to let this issue slip during
the early years of a community development, it would serve all parties best
interests to make sure that the appropriate time is spent after the golf course
is complete to walk the course, identify what is golf course maintenance and
what is HOA maintenance and to then make sure that the boundaries are adjusted
and set as appropriate so that this issue does not spin out of control by the
time the course is sold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And, make no
mistake, that course will be sold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With
few exceptions, developers do not like to be long term owners of golf courses
for one very simple reason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They rarely
make any money!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-66691273049723669672014-01-06T13:23:00.000-08:002014-01-06T13:23:03.166-08:00Now you see it, now you don't
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Now you see it, now you don’t<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Diversity is a good thing, right?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Different views, cultures, a melting pot of
ideas and innovation that creates a stronger whole.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is especially true in community design
and execution, where the mixing and matching of styles, colors and themes can
add interest and desirability to a community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ok.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You know this is a set
up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In planned communities, this whole concept falls short when
talking about mulch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now, of all the
aesthetic concerns regarding a master planned community, why, you ask, am I
concerned with mulch? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The answer is
simple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is visible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Actually, if you start messing with different
styles of mulch, it is very visible.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In a perfect mulch world, you typically don’t want to notice
mulch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You want to notice the trees and ornamentals,
the color and varied styles of the plantings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>They add interest and desirability to a neighborhood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, once you start mixing different
styles and colors of mulch to the mix, it suddenly seems to not work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It seems off, like mixing stripes and
plaids.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The problem is that there are so many different choices for
mulch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Excuse me for a moment while I
indulge my inner Forrest Gump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is
pine bark, pine needles, cypress, wood chips, straw, river rock, lava rock, red
mulch, brown mulch and so on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In master planned communities, where homes are typically 10
to 15 feet apart, it just does not look good when different mulches are used among
the homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It diverts the eye to
something that is really meant to act as visual filler.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That does not mean that mulch styles cannot
change in a community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It just means
that there needs to be a consistent application if a change is to be made.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It also does not mean that occasional
exceptions are not warranted, such as using small amounts of color blended
river rock in areas where wash outs may occur from rain sheeting through roof
valleys.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, as a whole, setting
architectural guidelines requiring a consistent application of mulch is a visual
win-win for most communities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Real estate by nature is a very visual form of
expression.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most of the time, the focus
is placed on the major elements such as elevations, amenities, entrance
features and community landscaping.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, it is important to not forget the smaller details, like
mulch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While much smaller in total
dollars spent, these complimentary items often have the ability to make or
break the visual integrity of a master planned community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like they say, the devil is in the details.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-3591837665779919172013-12-30T07:54:00.000-08:002013-12-30T07:54:07.162-08:00Stacking the Deck
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Stacking the Deck<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Let’s assume you need to make some form of community
modification requiring approval by the local municipality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You work with your consultants to prepare the
modification.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You work to gain support
of the community leaders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You review
with and finalize terms of the modification with the city planning staff,
gaining a positive recommendation for presentation to the city council.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally, you reach out to the individual
council members to bring them up to speed on the rationale behind the
amendment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It seems you have covered all
your bases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Approval should be a rubber
stamp.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What can go wrong?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The wild card here is the city council hearing itself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You should always assume that someone or some
group will come to speak out against the proposal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As council members are publicly elected, they
have a duty and responsibility to pay attention to their constituents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let’s do the math for a minute.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Assume four people come to speak out against
your proposal and two speak in favor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Regardless of everything you may have done right leading up to the
hearing, you may find yourself with a problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There is truth to the statement that the squeaky wheel gets the
grease.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With more physical evidence against
approval staring the commission in the face, they will be hard pressed to
disregard the naysayers and give the logical approval.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Call it unfair, call it injustice, call it
aggravation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I call it democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The good news is that this problem is easily solved with
proper up front planning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Make sure that
you have sufficient numbers of supporters present at the hearing to speak in
favor of your proposal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Feed them, bus
them, throw them a party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whatever it
takes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just make sure that they show up to
let the council know that the correct decision is also the one that is most
wildly supported.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Unfortunately, life is not always fair.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, there are many times that life can
be better controlled by stacking the deck in your favor.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Knowing that the best laid plans are usually the
best plans, make sure that when your proposal comes up for a vote that you have
plenty of people there to speak out on your behalf.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Nothing pleases a council more than to know they are enforcing the will
of the people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-73104784849739797662013-12-20T05:31:00.002-08:002013-12-20T05:31:53.409-08:00I Did Not See That Coming
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I Did Not See That Coming<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">A large part of the new home buying experience is not just
the relationship established between the sales associate and the home buyer,
but also the relationship between that same buyer and the whole home building
organization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nowhere is this more prevalent
than in highly amenitized lifestyle communities, where the home owner may actually
perceive the builder to be a larger part of their daily routine than the
builder realizes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In these lifestyle communities, the first job of the sales
team is to help the buyer fall in love with the community, and, after that, to
help those buyers find an appropriate home to meet their needs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since so much time is spent extolling the
virtues of all the community provided conveniences, the buyer feels that they
are truly purchasing more than just a home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That allows the builder to gain an edge over less amenitized traditional
subdivisions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, this double-edged
sword does have the ability to swing dangerously backwards. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is the savvy builder that strives hard to
make sure that the sword does not cause a decapitation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Even with a builder’s promotion of lifestyle elements, their
main job is to still sell homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are
not necessarily geared towards providing all the non-sales oriented community
services that the homeowner often feels they are entitled to receive in these
communities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I will give a true
example.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During the summer of 2004,
several hurricanes rolled back to back to back through the state of
Florida.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During this stressful time, a
number of well-meaning residents came to the builder’s main office and asked
what steps were being taken to secure the life-safety conditions for the
residents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am not talking about
securing construction job sites and implementation of community storm water pollution
protection plans (SWPPP).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They wanted to
know how the club would be staged as a shelter and how the builder would
provide evacuation services for residents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>On one hand, it was heartwarming to see that the community perceived the
developer as more than just a homebuilder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>On the other hand, it was concerning that the community perceived the
developer to be more than just a homebuilder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Fortunately, a middle ground was struck to help establish neighborhood patrols
that would interface with the appropriately trained and staffed emergency
response municipal organizations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">There is a saying that if you are going to run with the
bulls, that you will sometimes get the horn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I think that there is another way to look at this analogy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you are going to run with the bulls, then
make sure you are adequately prepared to avoid the horn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I believe that the thrill of the experience will
not suffer by taking steps to minimize and downgrade potentially dangerous and uncomfortable
situations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a busy time for homebuilders as they
work hard to reach year-end targets for home sales and closings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More importantly, though, it is a time of
year when homebuilders help families to celebrate and create holiday memories
with their loved ones by giving them the gift of new home ownership.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It truly is a special industry.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-14787599424690263332013-12-16T05:18:00.001-08:002013-12-16T05:18:37.402-08:00Guns vs. Butter
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Guns vs. Butter<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In my college macroeconomics class, we studied the
relationship of guns vs. butter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Basically, you can invest in defense or civilian goods, but cannot
maximize your investment in both.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You
need to decide how to strike the appropriate balance between the two needs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In real estate, I find there is a similar corollary between
home design and pricing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
impossible to get everything you want when contemplating new product design if
you also want to make sure you hit a certain price point.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I refer to this as the battle of the sales
team vs. the bean counters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I know it
does not sound as glamorous as guns and butter, but follow along with me for a
moment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">On one hand, the sales team will want good architectural
design with strong home elevations on the front and rear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Heaven forbid you have any secondary bedrooms
less than 12’ x 12’, the furniture just won’t fit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You have to have granite countertops as a
standard, as well as a preponderance of different size windows to make sure all
the rooms are cheery and bright.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also,
make sure that the garage is at least 20’ x 20’ or the cars will bang doors
against each other. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally, the outdoor
covered lanai must have a textured finish to the deck, since no one really wants
broom finish concrete.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With all these
items in place, the sales team will then tell you they will be able to hit your
monthly sales targets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All will be well
in the world and bonuses will be plentiful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The financial team will then throw cold water on that parade
and tell you that you can’t afford that level of detail and finish and also
expect to make any profit at market price points.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>End of story.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The struggle is how to resolve the dilemma without throwing
everyone into the MMA octagon to see who is the last man standing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(My money is on the sales team, but that is a
story for a different day).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As with the guns and butter dilemma, the key is compromise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I find it best to identify market price
points first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, a family only
has so much money to spend for their home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>With that in mind, you can then prioritize the home features to strike
the best balance between cost and price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>At the end of the day, the market will tell you what features are
necessary at each price point, so long as you are providing the right mix of
benefit and value.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Unfortunately, I can’t tell you how many times I have seen product
and feature design serve as a justification for higher than market price points
due to the level of detail and finish being provided in the homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In these cases, the teams eventually learn
the hard lesson that you can have guns or butter, but you can never have the
same amount of both. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh
Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando,
FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-2374972968374525242013-12-09T09:38:00.000-08:002013-12-09T09:38:46.522-08:00The Root of the Problem
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Root of the Problem<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I was at a public hearing the other night when the issue
of damage from street trees was addressed by the City Council.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was a brief discussion on the value of these
street trees since, in a mature condition, their roots were beginning to damage
sidewalks and sprinkler systems.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
became saddened as I listened.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In my
opinion, the whole premise of the discussion was wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This issue should not be whether or not the trees are
worth the damage that they cause.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
issue should be whether we as a society are doing enough to make sure our
communities are as aesthetically pleasing as possible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Area repairs due to the maturation of a
neighborhood are small prices to pay to make a community desirable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In my opinion, you can never have too much
community detail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let me put it in
perspective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you are going out for a
fancy night on the town, you want to make sure you look your best, right?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You want to celebrate and you want everyone
who sees you to know that you look incredible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You may need to spend extra money on your appearance and clothing, but
isn’t it worth it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t you feel better
about yourself?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Your community is no
different.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t you want it to look its
best when you come home and your friends come to visit?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you need to spend a little bit extra to
make sure it is always looking just right, isn’t it worth it?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I know not everyone can afford home and community
repairs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, isn’t the better
question not if, but how can you not afford to spend the money?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Attractive communities tend to have greater
community spirit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Greater community
spirit tends to lead to an enhanced lifestyle, where people care more about
their community and take initiatives to meet and involve neighbors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In general, it makes the area a better,
safer place to live.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These areas also tend
to have higher property values.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You may
be spending more than you would like on maintenance, but your increased home
value will more than offset that added expense.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So, the next time you see a sidewalk in need of repair
due to the maturation of street trees, take a look around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don’t ask if the trees were worth it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ask yourself what your community would look
like without them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is President of Gersh Consulting
Services, a real estate advisory firm, headquartered in Orlando, FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
or 407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-88653473169309075962013-12-02T05:53:00.001-08:002013-12-02T05:53:07.716-08:00I can't believe my builder won't...
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I can’t believe my builder won’t …<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As we enter the season of love, understanding and
goodwill towards man, I offer up a slightly different take on my normal blog,
something I like to call: “I can’t believe my builder won’t…”<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I can’t believe my builder won’t…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Offer pocket doors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The value of pocket doors is that they take
up no room space.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In tightly configured
areas, I have often heard a request for them so as to do away with the swing
area of a conventional door.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While some
production builders may offer pocket doors, many more try desperately to stay
away from them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In simple terms, they
are a warranty nightmare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No matter how
many times you explain to a home buyer to not hang anything on a wall with a
pocket door, they will invariably forget or disregard the advice and hang away
with picture hooks and other such items through the wall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem is that this area behind the wall
is where the door slides away from the opening – hence the term “pocket
door”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This leads to frustrated owners who
don’t understand why their doors are becoming scratched up and no longer open
properly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oh well…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I can’t believe my builder won’t… <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remove some windows to accomodate more wall
space for furniture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Home buyers will
often fall in love with a particular model, but will ask for some window
modifications to fit their furniture.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>What they fail to realize is that the lighting for a home can completely
change whenever some windows are removed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That light airy feeling that attracted them to the home in the first place
may seem dark and much less inviting with a window modification, all for the
sake of fitting in a piece of furniture that would have been better left at the
old house.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oh well…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I can’t believe my builder won’t … Allow me to add
landscaping to the side of my home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Oftentimes, homes are located ten feet apart.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition to fire separation issues, this
space is used for drainage swales between the homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Adding landscaping in these areas will very
likely impact the normal drainage flow, causing water to back up in both your
and your neighbor’s yard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oh well…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I can’t believe my builder won’t…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Add drop down stairs to access the attic
space in my garage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Please understand,
trusses are designed and installed to support the roof, not to serve as a storage
area for every unwanted item that you may have collected over the past 20
years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is not the builder’s
responsibility to make sure that the truss system has been designed as a
storage attic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is why it is not
called a storage attic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oh well…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So, instead of saying “I can’t believe my builder won’t…”
the next time he politely denies a construction request, try instead to ask
yourself the question “Why would my builder ever…”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is
President of Gersh Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm,
headquartered in Orlando, FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be
reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> or
407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-16728859525192839222013-11-25T06:09:00.005-08:002013-11-25T06:09:51.668-08:00My office my home
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">My office my home<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I recently read that One World Trade Center in New York
will be the tallest building in the western hemisphere and the third tallest
building in the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 9/11
symbolism and pride that it will bring to the Manhattan skyline is self
-explanatory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I just wonder whether such
extravagant structures are really necessary or will they soon become reminders
of what the world was like before the technological revolution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Consider the following.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Conventional metropolitan office space has historically been about
convenience.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is the convenience of
large population centers and ease of access to service professionals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is proximity to clients as well as
major sources of transportation, whether those be road, rail or air.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You would also be close to food,
entertainment and lodging alternatives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Now, consider the changes being wrought by the
technological age.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hard document
deliveries and signatures have been replaced by electronic files with
electronic signatures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Smart phones and
more compact server opportunities have reduced umbilical cord ties to close by
data centers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Video conferencing
capabilities have taken the place of the need for face to face meetings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You are now to the point where an individual
with a home office and a wireless connection can be just as productive and
interactive as a co-worker located in an adjacent office space.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is not to say that face to face human
interaction has no value.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, at
what price?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is it worth the stress and
time spent commuting to an office location?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Is it worth the rental cost of the office space?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Does it add true value to your client communication?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or, could you be just as effective and efficient
in a smaller, more flexible office environment with more employees working
off-site?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Remember, the large scale office building is a phenomenon
of the 20<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why
can’t the work environment continue to evolve and improve?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The mass affordability of the car is what led
to the suburbanization of America.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
also led to its current traffic congestion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Who is to say that the power of technology won’t create a new wave of
living that will change the way housing and office spaces work together?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is very possible that the future of Wall
Street and Main Street could merge into a cyber-community form of working and
living whose future is closer than we may think.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just don’t tell that to the large
institutions that have billions of dollars tied up in downtown office
buildings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, we still leave our
horses tied to hitching posts when we arrive at the office, right? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is
President of Gersh Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm,
headquartered in Orlando, FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be
reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> or
407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-12222874462889105072013-11-18T05:42:00.002-08:002013-11-18T05:42:20.913-08:00Attitude may only be skin deep
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Attitude may only be skin deep<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It is funny how we tend to remember the bad more than the
good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I can’t tell you how many times I
have heard salespeople tell me how they were disgusted by the negative attitude
of their customer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">However, what the sales staff tends to forget is the
amount of thought and effort made by that customer to just walk through the
door.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Understanding that effort is,
unfortunately, what often gets lost in the sales process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is critical for the sales team to remember
it is not how you are treated by the customer, but how the customer is treated
by you.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">There are times when the customer may appear not to care
and, in fact, it may seem that they want to be anywhere other than visiting the
sales office and models.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, let’s
recognize the effort made by the customer to come visit you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They needed to do some research on you as a
builder and community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They needed to
plan a visit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That alone takes
time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then, by making the actual visit,
you have become a major part of their day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Just as you will remember their poor attitude and perceived indifference,
they will remember how you treated them and responded to them long after they
leave.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This leads to long term impact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They may not have lived up to your
expectations of etiquette, but what impression did you make on them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Did they find you professional, knowledgeable
and caring?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is critical to remember that the best
customers are referral customers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will
they recommend you to others?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More often
than not, their visit was more meaningful than they will want you to
believe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They may even still buy a home
from you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The impression that you make on
them will have ramifications for future opportunities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Remember the saying not to judge a book by its
cover.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No matter how tattered and worn
that cover may be, you may be surprised to find a compelling story underneath.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is
President of Gersh Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm,
headquartered in Orlando, FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be
reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> or
407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-66185235694542991802013-11-11T09:26:00.001-08:002013-11-11T09:26:31.279-08:00It's not easy being green
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It’s not easy being green<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Green is a beautiful thing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It is the color of grass, the color of money and the somewhat universal name
given to something that is good for the environment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I am not trying to go all Kermit the Frog on
you, but I do want to talk about the green basis that seems to be used for energy
efficiency ratings on new homes, the HERS index.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">HERS stands for Home Energy Rating System and has become the
standard to define the energy efficiency rating of a home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I think this is a great idea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, I do believe that the information is
somewhat misleading.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The rating claims
that a Standard New Home has a basis of 100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Therefore, any home that has a HERS rating lower than 100 is more energy
efficient than a Standard New Home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Once
again, this sounds great.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact,
homebuilders are continually touting how their homes have HERS ratings well
below the Standard New Home benchmark.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
is where the problem comes into play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
am not aware of any new home builders that build standard homes to a HERS
rating of 100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whether it be due to in-house
construction improvements or changes to local building codes, every new home
builder that I am aware of builds all their homes to a HERS rating less than
100.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This allows all builders to promote
how green their construction practices are.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This is great for the builders and they should all be
applauded for building better and more efficient homes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, wouldn’t it be more appropriate for
the HERS standard to be adjusted on a yearly basis?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In reality, if construction practices and
building codes are improving every year, shouldn’t the standard rating bar be
moved every year as well?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I agree that a home that is more efficient that the Standard
New Home is a very energy efficient home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Just show me where they are building new homes to a 100 HERS rating for
comparison.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Otherwise, change the bar on
a regular basis so that we can get a better idea as to which new home builders
are being truly innovative in their green building construction practices.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Our old pal Kermit once sang “It’s not easy being green!”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let’s raise the bar and keep it that way.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is
President of Gersh Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm,
headquartered in Orlando, FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be
reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> or
407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7236948833054519321.post-14003583870411904362013-11-06T05:09:00.000-08:002013-11-06T05:09:11.178-08:00Twas the month before year end
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Twas the month before year end<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The holidays are near<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Oh yes, what a sight<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We want to be happy <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But the numbers are light<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We had set up our budgets<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">With high hopes and good cheer<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Though now do we panic<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As the year end looms near<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">To turn the corner we planned<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">New sales they would soar<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The recession behind us<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Of that we were sure<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Not just a few were expected<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But a ton of new sales<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We felt strong about the market<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We would emblazon new trails<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Large acreage had been purchased<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">New lots now secured<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We were set for the budget year<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Of that we were assured<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">New sales they would come<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We knew that this year would be great<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We staffed up for the increase<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sure to have a full plate<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But our eyes were too big<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">A large jump was the lure<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In both contracts and closings<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Our thoughts they were pure<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And now we find ourselves short<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Not by a lot, but enough<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Our bonuses will suffer<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It may get bumpy, a little bit rough<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We must move out the inventory<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Great year end prices to sell<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">So at the end of December<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">We will have a good story to tell<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Such is the tale of the builder<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">To do the best is their plight<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">While making guesses for the future<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And hoping the year end is bright!<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until next time…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Keep kicking the dirt!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jeff Gersh is
President of Gersh Consulting Services, a real estate advisory firm,
headquartered in Orlando, FL.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may be
reached at </span><a href="mailto:jsgersh@gmail.com"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">jsgersh@gmail.com</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> or
407-468-9328<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04375483113188293674noreply@blogger.com0