I am here. Where is my grocer?

I am here.  Where is my grocer?

So, it is time.  You have made that decision to buy a house.  However, the more established neighborhoods are too expensive.  Plus, you are looking for a home that will be big enough to handle your family’s growing needs.  Also, new schools and parks would be nice.  What can you do?  Voila!  You choose the brand new uber-community with parks, large affordable homes and new elementary school.  It is planned to have everything you need.  Except for one thing.  That 15 minute drive to the nearest retail area and supermarket is a real pain.  But, not to worry.  The developer said that it is coming.  You sigh in relief and wait, and wait, and wait.  You don’t understand.  Your community will have over 1,000 homes when it is finished.  There are other communities planned to go up around you and you see them moving dirt for that extension of the nearest highway as well.  With everything else happening around you, where is the retail.

I am sure you are all aware of the chicken and egg story.  Which comes first?  The chicken or the egg?  Well, in retail, there is no guess work involved.  Retail will definitely come.  However, it will not come before there are enough rooftops to support the planned retail.  If you assume 20 square feet of retail per household, a 1,000 unit community will generate a need for approximately 20,000 sf of retail.  Now, let’s assume that your average supermarket is about 45,000 sf.  In truth, they will average about 25,000 to over 60,000 sf.  Therefore, you need about 2,000 homes just to justify a supermarket.  That assumes there will be no other retail.  Beginning to get the idea?  Plus, I am going to go out on a limb and assume that you are not the only community in a 5 mile radius and that there may be other retail that may pull from your area.  Yes, it can get complicated. 

OK, so what can you do to try to determine when that shiny new store is coming just short drive away to your neighborhood?  Well, you can always call the corporate headquarters for your favorite grocer and ask their real estate department if they have any immediate plans to build a new store in your area.  Info straight from the horse’s mouth is usually better than BS coming out of orifices of others trying to sell you things.  (I am trying to be politically correct here, but fear I may be failing).  You can also check with the local municipality to see if there are any retail plans under approval.  Also, you can ask the municipality how many housing permits are being issued yearly in your area and what the current population of your area is.  From there, you can do the math to determine when your community and surrounding neighborhoods will generate enough need for your favorite grocer.

So, next time you are making that midnight run for that forgotten grocery list item, fear not.  You are just the egg and the retail is the chicken.  It will be there eventually.  Or are you the chicken?  I tend to mess this one up.

Until next time…

 

Keep kicking the dirt.